Tribalism, religion, party loyalty, performance, others swing electoral victories in Nigeria – NPSA

Parties did not prioritise robust campaigns focusing on issues; instead, attacks on parties and candidates were the trend

Ideology did not play any role in  elections making differentiation among the parties difficult for voters

By Aminah Salako – Adekunle

The Nigerian Political Science Association, NPSA, has asserted that elections in Nigeria have not been won strictly by performance in office but a mix of factors, including tribalism, religion, party loyalty, performance, among others.

NPSA made the assertion in a statement issued by its President, Prof. Hassan Salihu to Nigerian News Times in Ilorin the Kwara State capital.

The association made observation on the outcomes of 2025 by-election from twelve states of the federation, such as Adamawa, Anambra, Edo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Ogun, Oyo, Taraba, Zamfara, and a few other states, that went to the polls to fill vacancies at the state and national assemblies’ seats created by deaths and court judgments, with prospects for the 2027 election.

“There was a wide margin of votes between the winners and their runners-up. This occurred in Niger State in the Munya constituency, Kaduna State in the Zaria Kewaye constituency, and Edo and Anambra senatorial by-elections, among others. Secondly, the election results announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) were very close in some instances. This was particularly the situation in Taraba State at Karim I state constituency, where the difference between the winner and the runner-up was less than 400 votes. Thirdly, in most of the states where elections took place, candidates from the dominant political parties won the by-elections, except in Taraba, Adamawa, and Zamfara States (the last being where results were declared inconclusive). These outcomes occurred in Oyo, Anambra, Kaduna, Edo, Kano, and Ogun States. Fourthly, there were surprises in the elections as some parties snatched electoral victories from incumbent parties, especially in Kano, Adamawa, and Taraba States”.

NPSA identified voter apathy in the by-election even though it was peculiar to few States.

“There was noticeable voter apathy in the elections, though this was not a general pattern observed in all twelve states. Some states, like Edo and Anambra, returned high votes for their parties’ victorious candidates. Sixthly, based on various accounts of the by-elections, some unsavoury dimensions of the country’s elections manifested themselves in terms of rigging, ballot stuffing, vote-buying, thuggery and others, tilting victory in favour of candidates that may not necessarily be desired by the voters.

“There were reports of malfunctioning of electoral devices (Bivariate Authentication Systems (BVAS) and the INEC Results Viewing (IReV) portal) deployed during the elections. Eightly, the parties did not prioritise robust campaigns focusing on issues; instead, attacks on parties and candidates were the trend. Ninthly, political parties, except the dominant parties in the affected states, were not overly visible during the elections, judging by the election results announced by INEC. Tenthly, elections in Nigeria have not been won strictly by performance in office; a mix of factors, including tribalism, religion, party loyalty, performance, and others, swing electoral” the statement affirmed.

It maintains that the role of security agencies was commendable on some occasions but deplorable on others.

“The country’s political parties have more to learn in conduct, organisation and in mobilising citizens for robust electoral engagement and turning out en masse on Election Day. Every INEC Chairman has lamented the unedifying role of the registered political parties in the electoral process, which they consider a threat to free and fair elections. Four, politics is still akin to a “war” for the country’s politicians, wherein morally repressive measures are resorted to swing votes. These were observed during the by-elections. The stakeholders in the electoral process must note this dimension and find a solution to it before the 2027 General Elections. Five, the power of incumbency is still strong, compelling attention in Nigeria’s elections, by virtue of which incumbents control all coercive instruments of the state at the expense of other political forces. The angle of the new Electoral Act must turn to this development to create a level playing field for the parties and their candidates. Six, the laws of the land are often not respected by the parties and their candidates. The law easily breaks down during elections due to compromise and an inadequate workforce by the security agencies to enforce the law. The issue of the law and its enforcement must be paid attention to by all stakeholders in the electoral process” it argued.

It argues that the victory of any of the parties in the upcoming 2027 elections can only be assured if it demonstrates its readiness to engage with Nigerians by being forthcoming in its programmes to tackle the myriad problems facing the nation.

“The need for further reform of the electoral process has been revealed by the recently conducted by-elections. The legal approach is inevitably one of the options. However, one argues that it should be combined with value orientation, judging by the mindset of politicians and voters fixated on material exchange. Thirteen, the hardship in the land did play a role during the elections, even if it is difficult to prove. Some Nigerian factors may have blurred it in some of the circumstances. It seemed more manifest in the Oyo senatorial by-election against the campaign rhetoric of the ruling party in the state. As the next round of elections approaches, politicians must be able to establish the link between some of their losses and some dynamics, including failure to entrench a regime of good governance that makes everyone relatively happy in a democracy. Fourteen, there is nothing definitive about the elections so far. They have only given indications of possible areas of strength and weakness”, it added.

NPSA reiterates that the by-election valuable experience serves a mid-term assessment of governance and election management which should guide all stakeholders for improvement in the democratic process.